There's no good news in a weak freight market. And a big part of the bad news is the drivers fleets don't need today won't be any easier to find — or keep — once traffic starts humming tomorrow.

But smart managers won't put off doing all they can to secure and hold onto quality drivers. And while there may be more prospects knocking on the door right now, this era of insurance carriers bearish on trucking means there is even more value in hiring only the best.

Another big reason to stay on top of the driver shortage and turnover issue is that the return of the owner-operator in a big way is in no way certain. Fleets that think they will be able to quickly expand when an upturn arrives by signing up independent contractors may be in for a rude awakening.

That's because financial conditions are no longer conducive for owner-operators to come roaring back into the market when the economy picks up.

Of course, everyone in trucking can't wait to deal with the problems of recovery. But, for good or ill, the industry remains in a holding pattern.

“There's no driver shortage now,” analyst Chris Brady, president of Manhasset, NY-based Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting (CMVC) says flatly. “No one is aggressively expanding their fleet thanks to a still soft freight market. But once freight levels start accelerating, the driver problem will return.”

“There's no shortage of drivers here now,” relates J. Braxton Vick, Jr., senior vp-corporate planning & development for Southeastern Freight Lines (SEFL). “But when business comes back, there will be real competition for drivers again.” He reports that's a big reason why the Columbia, SC-based regional carrier has just invested in a new automated hiring system.

Herb Schmidt, president of Joplin, MO-based truckload carrier CFI, contends the “the driver shortage will return as the economy does.” However, due to several critical factors that he feels will keep their numbers down, he expects “no big boom” in owner-operators anytime soon.

CMVC's Brady sees “no strong upturn” in freight, but rather “growth at a sluggish to moderate rate through the end of this year, followed by a gradual gain in momentum through '04.” Given that scenario, he says “a severe driver shortage won't appear before the second half of '04. Finding and keeping drivers will gradually become an issue again.”

As for the owner-operator's role in the cheerier days ahead, Brady expects it will be different than in the recent past. “Research shows that there has been a large shift to more owner-operators leasing to fleets-away from those who work as true independents soliciting their own freight.

“Although there is greater risk to running alone,” he notes, “there is also potentially a greater return since a carrier is not taking part of that income. As the economy improves, some of today's leased operators will shift back to independent status to get that return.”

Brady points out that means a fleet planning to expand solely by relying on leased owner-operators may find they are leaving just as they are most needed.

“That would make the shortage more severe for that fleet — and the fleet would also have to replace that power equipment,” he adds.

While leased owner-operators may indeed get antsy and start looking to roam when things loosen up, Brady does not see the total owner-operator segment growing in '03. “Fuel is coming down but from a very high level,” he points out, “and of course freight is only gradually expanding” so there is little inducement for new independents to start trucking.

CFI's Schmidt says the growth potential for owner-operators will be thwarted by several factors that he says are not going away anytime soon.

“Fuel prices may go down but they will remain volatile,” says Schmidt. “The insurance market has not stabilized. There is no end in sight for the insurance crisis, which is driven by investment factors as well as the need for tort reform. Hopeful owner-operators will also find credit remains tight.”

When might owner-operators be back? ”They will be slow to jump back in,” says Schmidt. “There would have to be a steady recovery for at least a year for there to be willingness on the part of insurance companies to underwrite and banks to loan [to new entrants].”

Returning to how the shape of the economy drives up and down the supply of drivers, Schmidt remarks that the reality is “very few drivers are at it for a lifetime. They are professionals when working as drivers but many get in and out of this business as their needs dictate.

“They may stop driving for a few years to spend more time near home, for example,” he continues. “Then they will return to driving when the job market is tight. That's what we are seeing now. The reality,” Schmidt adds, “is the driver shortage can't be eliminated so it has to be managed.”

In full agreement with that viewpoint is SEFL's Vick. “There's no problem finding employees now,” he remarks. “But when business comes back, we want a better method.

“One of the biggest problems is how long it takes to hire someone,” he continues. “It can take two to four weeks to move everything through a traditional system. And that can be particularly tough when trying to hire quality drivers. You want to be able to identify the top candidates and offer them a job before someone else.”

Vick reports that the LTL carrier, which serves a region running from Virginia to Texas and Puerto Rico, has invested in a new automated hiring system. SEFL will be the first trucking user of the Unicru web-based system.

Portland, OR-based Unicru, says vp of marketing Chris Reed, regards itself as “the first and only end-to-end integrated hiring platform” and has some 60 customers in various fields.

According to Reed, Unicru's system reduces costs by cutting down turnover, by ensuring any tax credits are maximized, and by streamlining the process by eliminating paperwork to hire people faster.

To set the system in motion, an applicant completes an electronic application that includes custom-designed assessment questions. Each response is transmitted to a secure database and evaluated against criteria derived from successful employees previously hired.

The hiring manger uses a web desktop to review the resulting pre-hire summaries that include suggested follow-up questions.

“Applicants,” Reed notes, “benefit from a faster, more objective application process. These employees in turn are likely to be more satisfied in their jobs.”

SEFL, which is now completing testing of the system, will use its own web site as well as kiosks stationed in each of its 58 service centers (terminals) as points of access for applicants.

“The system will help standardize hiring practice across 58 locations,” Vick remarks. “It will pre-screen applicants and do automatic background checks. We will be integrating it with our other human resources and payroll system to streamline the hiring process even more.”

“It will dramatically accelerate the hiring process,” he says. “That will help us get people when we need them — and just as important, before they accept another position.”

“The basic idea behind our approach is to apply scientific methods to the hiring process,” Unicru's Reed adds. “The goal is to hire the best people at the lowest cost. Then, ideally, management can invest in career development and working conditions to reduce turnover.”

Another scientific practitioner of the hiring arts already well-known in trucking circles is Gig harbor, WA-based Scheig Associates Inc.

According to president Mark Tinney, the Scheig Hiring & Performance System is designed to identify and develop “high-performance” employees.

He explains that the system covers three phases. The first is assessing the applicant pool using Scheig's own assessment to identify potential high performers. Next comes confirmation of the hiring decision by way of structured interview questions designed to reveal strengths and weaknesses in critical job behaviors. Lastly, high performers are developed with the aid of an evaluation that can determine training needs by individual or position.

Tinney contends that such systems are necessary even in a down economy “because you still see an incredible amount of churning in driving jobs. It's true that some trucking companies say they can't be selective when busy and don't need to be when they are slow. But we would argue it is better to build a strong base of quality drivers.

“We think it's important to get beyond hiring for minimum technical abilities, such as having a CDL,” he says, “and look to hiring individuals who also have the behaviors that will result in success on the job.

“However,” cautions Tinney, “systems like ours are only half the equation. Selection is important to cut turnover. But the other half is the hiring company's environment. Those employees who are hired because they are good at their jobs usually know it — and are not going to stay for long at a substandard place.”

To hear the experts, there are two undeniable aspects of the driver shortage. It's never going away. And you can never stop investing to address it.